Scenario Planning & Strategic Foresight
Overview
No one can predict the future, but leaders can prepare for several possible futures. This course teaches scenario planning and strategic foresight methods that help organisations spot emerging trends, explore uncertainty, test strategies against different futures and build early warning systems.
Who should attend
Senior managers, strategy and policy staff, risk managers, and planners in government and business.
Training methodology
Interactive presentations, practical exercises, case studies, group discussions, role-plays where relevant, and a personal action plan that participants apply in their own work.
Objectives
By the end of this course, participants will be able to:
- Explain the principles of strategic foresight
- Identify trends, drivers and critical uncertainties
- Build plausible and challenging scenarios
- Test strategies and options against scenarios
- Set up signposts and early warning indicators
Course outline
Day 1Thinking About the Future
- Why forecasts fail
- Foresight versus forecasting
- Cognitive biases
- Foresight methods overview
- Discussion
Day 2Trends and Drivers
- Horizon scanning
- Megatrends
- Weak signals
- Driver mapping
- Scanning exercise
Day 3Building Scenarios
- Critical uncertainties
- Scenario matrix
- Writing scenario narratives
- Testing plausibility
- Scenario workshop
Day 4Using Scenarios
- Wind-tunnelling strategies
- Robust and flexible options
- Contingency plans
- Scenario-based decisions
- Case study
Day 5Embedding Foresight
- Signposts and early warnings
- Foresight units
- Engaging leadership
- Regular review cycles
- Action plan
